The United States of America is rapidly approaching Election Day, and voters are increasingly anxious about the results and validity of voting amid the current pandemic, which has led to a surge in mail-in ballots and early voting. The United States Presidential Election, between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, has featured a continuous debate on the electoral system’s reliability. A phenomenon identified as The Blue Shift by Edward Foley has become relevant in predicting the effect of an increase in absentee voting and understanding previous electoral outcomes.
A Big Blue Shift: Measuring an Asymmetrically Increasing Margin of Litigation, a journal article by Ohio State University Professor Edward Foley, describes The Blue Shift as a significant gain in votes for the Democratic Party during the canvass period. The outcome of an election in the United States is not official until the completion of the canvass when all votes get recorded; this includes in-person voting, absentee ballots, provisional ballots, and military personnel voting. Edward Foley attributes this phenomenon to the tendency among young voters, low-income voters, and absentee voters to elect Democratic Candidates. Although the United States is accustomed to learning projected results on Election Day, these results are not accurate representations of the final outcome, especially during a pandemic with an unprecedented amount of mail-in ballots.
In the context of the United States Presidential Election, Hawkfish predicts a Red Mirage in which Republican Donald Trump would hold the majority, followed by a Blue Shift as mail-in ballots get tallied. After the initial announcement, it will likely take several days to record votes, and media organizations should explicitly state that the actual outcomes are dependent on the canvass. As Election Day may very well become an Election Week, the United States should be aware of the electoral process and the unique implications of the current pandemic.
Section Editor: Alberto André Najarro
Section: Global Politics
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