Weeks ago, the United States participated in a free, fair, and decisive election that delivered a clear result— Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will assume office as President and Vice President, respectively, on Inauguration Day.
Despite the surrounding circumstances, the electoral process itself was unremarkable in most ways: neither candidate overturned any safe states, and in the few swing-states, neither candidate won by a large margin. Joe Biden primarily won on the path that many expected Hillary Clinton to take in 2016 when pollsters speculated a flip in Georgia and Arizona.
Foreign interference was not as prevalent this election cycle, perhaps due to the reinforcement of the electoral system and citizens’ ability to challenge their institutions. In 2016, the United States government accused Russia of carrying out a series of hacks to damage campaigns’ integrity and sowing general unrest. While possibly contributing to misinformation campaigns in the aftermath of the election, Russian and Iranian efforts were not as blatant as years past.
When viewing United States politics as a set of continuous and changing patterns, it is never too early to begin looking at future contests. As far as surface-level electoral patterns, the recent election does not give many clues about what to expect in 2024.
Donald Trump is the first one-term president since George H.W. Bush in the 1990s, and for the past several decades, the two parties have maintained alternating eight-year terms in the Oval Office. In hindsight, this upholds a loose theory of predictability in presidential elections— the incumbent president holds an advantage in re-election years while the opposing party has an advantage in others. Joe Biden’s age indicates that he may be a one-term president as well; currently seventy-seven years old, he has presented himself as a transitional figure and hinted at the possibility of stepping aside to make way for a younger candidate after the first term.
Combining these factors suggests the possibility of an open race for both parties in the upcoming presidential election. Kamala Harris, an obvious democratic nominee, must work on building a democratic coalition to clear the field effectively, or she may risk the same challenges Joe Biden faced in the primary. While a longshot, President Trump has already hinted at running in 2024. The possibility of another campaign seems unlikely, as he faces a similar challenge to that of Republican Presidential Nominee Mitt Romney in 2012, who now sits on the outskirts of the party he was originally chosen to lead. If Donald Trump does not join the race for president, the party will again be in the spotlight without a clear frontrunner.
Section Editor: Alberto André Najarro
Section: Global Politics
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